Matchday 22 - EPL Predictions
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EPL Predictions

Matchday 22 - EPL Predictions

The Son
The Son

Hi everyone!

Welcome to the twenty-second edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.

As a general rule of thumb, each issue will assess the previous week's forecasts plus provide naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.

I recently published a detailed post on the underlying concepts behind the Bayesian nature of my model, you can read more about that on the link below.

An Introduction to Forecasting Football Results - Part I
A tutorial behind the maths required to build a simple Bayesian model in Python that forecasts the outcome of football matches.

Let's get to it.

End-of-season predictions

Projected Premier League table.

Naive predictions

The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.

The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.

EPL matchday 22 predictions.

Biased Predictions

In this section, I present my biased forecasts based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.

The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.

Biased matchday 22 predictions.

Detailed Fixture Forecasts

How did we do in the last gameweek?