Hi everyone!
Welcome to the twenty-fourth edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.
As a general rule of thumb, each issue will assess the previous week's forecasts plus provide naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.
I recently published a detailed post on the underlying concepts behind the Bayesian nature of my model, you can read more about that on the link below.
The Son
Let's get to it.
End-of-season predictions
Naive predictions
The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.
The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.
Biased Predictions
In this section, I present my biased forecasts based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.
The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.
How did we do in the last gameweek?
