Matchday 10 - EPL Predictions
Photo by Timo Müller / Unsplash
EPL Predictions

Matchday 10 - EPL Predictions

The Son
The Son

Hi everyone!

Welcome to the tenth edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.

As a general rule of thumb, each issue will contain an assessment of the previous week's forecasts, plus naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.

(you can learn more about the general assumptions of the model here)

Let's get to it.

End-of-season predictions

Liverpool's loss against the Gunners really dropped their chances of lifting the title this season, at least, according to my model. Now, both sides have a 5% chance of snapping the Premier League off City's hands – who after just 9 GWs have an 83% chance of winning the league.

On the other end, Forest's chances of dropping out of the major division in English football are estimated at 91%.

EPL end-of-season projections.

Naive Predictions

The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.

The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.

EPL matchday 10 predictions.

Biased Predictions

In this section, I present my biased forecasts, which, are based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.

The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.

Biased matchday 10 predictions.

Detailed fixture forecasts

From this point forward I'll stop doing a write-up for each game, as I believe that it was taking more time than the actual value that they added to the post. Hope you understand 🥴

Brentford vs. Brighton & Hove Albion forecast.
Leicester City vs. Crystal Palace forecast.
Fulham vs. AFC Bournemouth forecast.
Wolverhampton vs. Nottingham Forest forecast.
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Everton forecast.
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea forecast.
Leeds United vs. Arsenal forecast.
Manchester United vs. Newcastle United forecast.
Southampton vs. West Ham United forecast.
Liverpool vs. Manchester City forecast.

How did we do in the last gameweek?


The forecast error for this past GW has shown the highest difference when compared to 538's forecasts, with a staggering 13% difference. Thankfully, the model is still close when looking at the whole season, but still...

Matchday 9 evaluation.

Hope you enjoyed today's issue! Let's see how we fare in this season's tenth gameweek, I'll post the model's error in next week's issue.

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Catch you later! 👋