Matchday 11 - EPL Predictions
Photo by Joshua Hoehne / Unsplash
EPL Predictions

Matchday 11 - EPL Predictions

The Son
The Son

Hi everyone!

Welcome to the eleventh edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.

As a general rule of thumb, each issue will contain an assessment of the previous week's forecasts, plus naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.

(you can learn more about the general assumptions of the model here)

Let's get to it.

End-of-season predictions

EPL end-of-season projections.

Naive Predictions

The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.

The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.

EPL matchday 11 predictions.

Biased Predictions

In this section, I present my biased forecasts, which, are based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.

The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.

Biased matchday 11 predictions.

Detailed fixture forecasts

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Nottingham Forest forecast.
Crystal Palace vs. Wolverhampton forecast.
AFC Bournemouth vs. Southampton forecast.
Brentford vs. Chelsea forecast.
Newcastle United vs. Everton forecast.
Liverpool vs. West Ham United forecast.
Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur forecast.
Fulham vs. Aston Villa forecast.
Leicester City vs. Leeds United forecast.

How did we do in the last gameweek?

Much better. We reduced our overall error and performed almost 3% better than 538 in the past GW.

Most of the differences between my model and 538's come from Arsenal, Brighton and City games, which my model usually assigns them a lower probability of winning. This means that when those teams underperform, it's likely I see an uptick in my model's projections.

Matchday 10 evaluation.

Hope you enjoyed today's issue! Let's see how we fare in this season's eleventh gameweek, I'll post the model's error in next week's issue.

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Catch you later! 👋