Welcome to the eleventh edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.
As a general rule of thumb, each issue will contain an assessment of the previous week's forecasts, plus naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.
(you can learn more about the general assumptions of the model here)
Let's get to it.
The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.
The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.
In this section, I present my biased forecasts, which, are based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.
The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.
Detailed fixture forecasts
How did we do in the last gameweek?
Much better. We reduced our overall error and performed almost 3% better than 538 in the past GW.
Most of the differences between my model and 538's come from Arsenal, Brighton and City games, which my model usually assigns them a lower probability of winning. This means that when those teams underperform, it's likely I see an uptick in my model's projections.
Hope you enjoyed today's issue! Let's see how we fare in this season's eleventh gameweek, I'll post the model's error in next week's issue.
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Catch you later! 👋