Welcome to the thirteenth edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.
As a general rule of thumb, each issue will contain an assessment of the previous week's forecasts, plus naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.
(you can learn more about the general assumptions of the model here)
Let's get to it.
The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.
The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.
In this section, I present my biased forecasts, which, are based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.
The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.
Detailed fixture forecasts
How did we do in the last gameweek?
The streak of beating 538 has come to an end for my biased model as we trail back to a 2.9% error overall.
However, the naive model was the best out of the three models in this past gameweek and it's now getting closer to both models after some pretty unpredictable fixtures.
Hope you enjoyed today's issue! Let's see how we fare in this season's thirteenth gameweek, I'll post the model's error in next week's issue.
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Catch you later!