Matchday 13 - EPL Predictions
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EPL Predictions

Matchday 13 - EPL Predictions

The Son
The Son

Hi everyone!

Welcome to the thirteenth edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.

As a general rule of thumb, each issue will contain an assessment of the previous week's forecasts, plus naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.

(you can learn more about the general assumptions of the model here)

Let's get to it.

End-of-season predictions

End-of-season predictions.

Naive Predictions

The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.

The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.

EPL matchday 13 predictions.

Biased Predictions

In this section, I present my biased forecasts, which, are based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.

The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.

Biased matchday 13 predictions.

Detailed fixture forecasts

Leicester City vs. Manchester City forecast.
AFC Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Hotspur forecasts.
Brentford vs. Wolverhampton forecasts.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Chelsea forecast.
Crystal Palace vs. Southampton forecasts.
Newcastle United vs. Aston Villa forecast.
Fulham vs. Everton forecast.
Liverpool vs. Leeds United forecast.
Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest forecast.
Manchester United vs. West Ham United forecast.

How did we do in the last gameweek?

The streak of beating 538 has come to an end for my biased model as we trail back to a 2.9% error overall.

However, the naive model was the best out of the three models in this past gameweek and it's now getting closer to both models after some pretty unpredictable fixtures.

Hope you enjoyed today's issue! Let's see how we fare in this season's thirteenth gameweek, I'll post the model's error in next week's issue.

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Catch you later!