Hi everyone!
Welcome to the sixteenth edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.
As a general rule of thumb, each issue will contain an assessment of the previous week's forecasts, plus naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.
(you can learn more about the general assumptions of the model here)
Let's get to it.
End-of-season predictions
Naive Predictions
The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.
The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.
Biased Predictions
In this section, I present my biased forecasts based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.
The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.
Detailed fixture forecasts
How did we do in the last gameweek?
The model is just 3% behind 538's model as we head into what feels like a new Premier League season following the World Cup.
Although it's highly unlikely that my model can beat 538's model (overall), I think it is still quite possible for us to close some ground and achieve a less than 2% error difference.
Let's hope the restart brings us some luck!
