Matchday 16 - EPL Predictions
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EPL Predictions

Matchday 16 - EPL Predictions

The Son
The Son

Hi everyone!

Welcome to the sixteenth edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.

As a general rule of thumb, each issue will contain an assessment of the previous week's forecasts, plus naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.

(you can learn more about the general assumptions of the model here)

Let's get to it.

End-of-season predictions

End-of-season predictions.

Naive Predictions

The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.

The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.

EPL matchday 16 predictions.

Biased Predictions

In this section, I present my biased forecasts based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.

The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.

Biased matchday 16 predictions.

Detailed fixture forecasts

Brentford vs. Tottenham Hotspur forecast.
Crystal Palace vs. Fulham forecast.
Everton vs. Wolverhampton forecast.
Leicester City vs. Newcastle United forecast.
Southampton vs. Brighton & Hove Albion forecast.
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool forecast.
Arsenal vs. West Ham United forecast.
Chelsea vs. AFC Bournemouth forecast.
Manchester United vs. Nottingham Forest forecast.
Leeds United vs. Manchester City forecast.

How did we do in the last gameweek?

The model is just 3% behind 538's model as we head into what feels like a new Premier League season following the World Cup.

Although it's highly unlikely that my model can beat 538's model (overall), I think it is still quite possible for us to close some ground and achieve a less than 2% error difference.

Let's hope the restart brings us some luck!

Matchday 15 prediction evaluation.