Matchday 17 - EPL Predictions
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EPL Predictions

Matchday 17 - EPL Predictions

The Son
The Son

Hi everyone!

Welcome to the seventeenth edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.

As a general rule of thumb, each issue will contain an assessment of the previous week's forecasts, plus naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.

(you can learn more about the general assumptions of the model here)

Let's get to it.

End-of-season predictions

End-of-season predictions.

Naive Predictions

The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.

The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.

EPL matchday 17 predictions.

Biased Predictions

In this section, I present my biased forecasts based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.

The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.

Biased matchday 17 predictions.

Detailed fixture forecasts

West Ham United vs. Brentford forecast.
Liverpool vs. Leicester City forecast.
Wolverhampton vs. Manchester United forecast.
AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace forecast.
Fulham vs. Southampton forecast.
Manchester City vs. Everton forecast.
Newcastle United vs. Leeds United forecast.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Arsenal forecast.
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Aston Villa forecast.
Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea forecast.

How did we do in the last gameweek?

Pretty great!

The model beat 538's predictions by 2%, and we marginally closed the gap in the overall predictions.

Really happy with the model's performance so far :)

Matchday 16 prediction evaluation.