Matchday 18 - EPL Predictions
Photo by Bernard Hermant / Unsplash
EPL Predictions

Matchday 18 - EPL Predictions

The Son
The Son

Hi everyone!

Welcome to the eighteenth edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.

As a general rule of thumb, each issue will assess the previous week's forecasts plus provide naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.

(you can learn more about the general assumptions of the model here)

Let's get to it.

End-of-season predictions

End-of-season predictions.

Naive Predictions

The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.

The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.

EPL matchday 18 predictions

Biased Predictions

In this section, I present my biased forecasts based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.

The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.

Biased matchday 18 predictions.

Detailed fixture forecasts

Brentford vs. Liverpool forecast.
Arsenal vs. Newcastle United forecast.
Everton vs. Brighton & Hove Albion forecast.
Leicester City vs. Fulham forecast.
Manchester United vs. AFC Bournemouth forecast.
Southampton vs. Nottingham Forest forecast.
Leeds United vs. West Ham United forecast.
Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton forecast.
Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham Hotspur forecast.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City forecast.

How did we do in the last gameweek?

This past gameweek has been the most unpredictable this season, with all three models getting an error above 0.7. Sadly, my model underperformed 538's by a tiny margin – mainly due to Tottenham and Chelsea results.