Hi everyone!
Welcome to the sixth edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.
As a general rule of thumb, each issue will contain an assessment of the previous week's forecasts, plus naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.
(you can learn more about the general assumptions of the model here)
Let's get to it.
End-of-season predictions
Naive Predictions
The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.
The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.
Biased Predictions
In this section, I present my biased forecasts, which, are based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.
The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.
On my exact scoreline predictions from last week, I got five correct results and two exact scoreline predictions.
Everton vs. Liverpool
Everton have been a tough beat for Liverpool at Goodison Park. Eight of the last eleven fixtures at the Evertonians home ground have ended in a draw and Liverpool are still yet to find last season's rhythm, especially away from home.
I think that we might see a feisty 1 - 1 draw.
Brentford vs. Leeds United
Leeds will most likely be missing Rodrygo for the match, albeit, with the return of Patrick Bamford. Brentford have looked less confident since their win at United, and although they've still been able to find the net, it's the defense that worries me...
This is a difficult call to make, but I think that another draw is in store here, with both sides scoring a couple of goals – so a 2 - 2 draw is my prediction for this one.
Chelsea vs. West Ham United
Chelsea have been far from impressive, and although West Ham had a tough start, their draw against Spurs shows that they're still able to upset top sides.
Soucek can be massive for the Hammers and he showed that against Tottenham, whereas Chelsea have been leaky defensively and not too dangerous on the front foot.
Let's see what this brings, but I think that a 0 - 1 win for Moye's men could be in store here.
Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace
This should be a great watch. Both sides have played great football and should be hoping to challenge for a Europa League spot this season.
I think it'll be a tight one, and a single goal should decide the margin of victory.
I'm calling a 1 - 0 win for the hosts here.
Nottingham Forest vs. AFC Bournemouth
Bournemouth's performances are worrying. I think we'll see record low points with them this season for the Cherries, and in a direct relegation battle, I find it hard to promote anything other than a Forest win after their massive performance against West Ham, and a solid display against Spurs.
Gun to my head prediction: 2 - 0 Forest.
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Fulham
Spurs are too vulnerable defensively, but they do seem to get away with things, so I wouldn't go against them here.
I think Fulham will get a goal and make things difficult for Spurs through most of the fixture, but still, not enough to tip the balance in their favor.
Spurs win 3 - 1.
Wolverhampton vs. Southampton
I like Wolves, but looking at their results it just seems that it might take a while for things to get going at Molineaux.
Southampton shut me up in their massive win against Chelsea and I think they might be victors once more against a low-threat Wolves side.
I'll be going against my model here with a 0 - 1 Southampton win.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City
Haaland double and a 0 - 2 win for City. That's it.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Leicester City
Leicester's form is extremely concerning, and I hope they don't get dragged too much into a relegation battle.
Brighton will create tons of chances, and despite having a poor record at the Amex, I think they'll have no problem scoring against a damaged Leicester team.
Forecast: 2 - 0 win for the hosts.
Manchester United vs. Arsenal
This will be the game where Arsenal finally drops off some points.
United are improving and they should be looking to park the bus against a very dangerous Arsenal team.
Exact scoreline prediction: 0 - 0.
How did we do last week?
This was the first gameweek my model beat 538's with a 4% higher accuracy and we're nearing closer on the whole season error, now just 6% higher.
Hope you enjoyed today's issue! Let's see how we fare in this season's fourth gameweek, I'll post the model's error in next week's issue.
If you like my work, please help me by subscribing to my website and sharing my posts.
Catch you later! 👋
