Hi everyone!
Welcome to the ninth edition of my EPL Predictions newsletter, where each week, I'll post detailed forecasts for each game.
As a general rule of thumb, each issue will contain an assessment of the previous week's forecasts, plus naive and biased predictions for upcoming games.
(you can learn more about the general assumptions of the model here)
Let's get to it.
End-of-season predictions
Naive Predictions
The naive predictions are computed using historical data only, and it's the forecast system that I use to simulate the end-of-season probabilities for the Premier League.
The following table showcases each game's forecasts under this model.
Biased Predictions
In this section, I present my biased forecasts, which, are based on both my hunch and historical data. For each match, I'll present a detailed viz with probabilities for different events within the match and a small write-up.
The following table shows the summary of my biased forecasts.
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leicester City
Leicester gasped a breath of fresh air after their commanding win against Forest. The Foxes, although vulnerable defensively have plenty of options offensively, and James Maddison is just an exceptional player to watch.
The Cherries have improved in recent fixtures, but they seem too timid on the attacking front. This leads me to think that although Bournemouth are likely to net a goal (with a 66% chance according to my model) they will lose 1 - 3 against Brendan Rodger's men.
Chelsea vs. Wolverhampton
I thought Bruno Lage's sacking to be a bit harsh. Yes, Wolves have been pretty timid offensively and they are not the most exciting team to watch, but they also have a very disparate squad in my opinion.
Potter is yet to prove himself on this Chelsea side, and I wouldn't be extremely confident on backing a Blue's win here, but if you had a gun to my head and asked me for a forecast I'd say that Chelsea wins this one by a single goal. Exact scoreline prediction: 1 - 0.
Manchester City vs. Southampton
Another Haaland hat trick? Hell yeah.
Southampton's defense should be trembling with fear just thinking about this match and I don't blame them. City have scored 47 goals in their past eleven games at home (in all competitions) and look as dangerous as ever.
My model is assigning a 4 - 0 win by City a 7.1% chance and I think that number should be even higher.
Newcastle United vs. Brentford
Brentford are so strange, and I'm not sure they'll finish in the top half of the table anymore.
Newcastle have a decent home record in their last ten games, only losing to Liverpool by a single goal. Yes, they've drawn their past three but the Bees are not the best defensively away from home, having only kept a clean sheet against Bournemouth in their last ten on the road.
I think we might see a 1 - 1 draw at St. James Park.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Ugh, Tottenham are so hard to predict it's annoying. Spurs have been getting away with results recently, and had a very poor display against Arsenal on the previous weekend.
Their match against Frankfurt was boring as hell, and against a Brighton side which have a similar playing style to Arsenal's should cause them loads of problems. I'd like for Spurs to win, but honestly, I think we'll see a high-scoring draw at the Amex.
I'm going for a 2 - 2 draw.
Crystal Palace vs. Leeds United
Not much to say on this one, other than Palace have had a tough start to the season (in terms of the opposition they've faced), and it's quite hard to judge them based on these stats alone.
Leeds are decent and should pose problems to Vieira's side, however, I think the hosts will nick a 2 - 1 win here.
West Ham United vs. Fulham
Mitrovic's fitness doubts lead me to think that Fulham just won't have enough to get a point at the London Stadium.
The Hammers have slowly been improving this season and their win against Wolves should give them a boost ahead of this one.
West Ham wins 2 - 0.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool
I hate to say this but I think Arsenal will beat Liverpool at the Emirates and end The Red's recent supremacy against The Gunners (4W 1D against Arsenal in their last 5 direct encounters).
I'm leaning towards a 2 - 1 win for Arteta's men to keep them at the top of the table this weekend.
Everton vs. Manchester United
Everton fans seem pretty happy with Lampard, and no wonder given the side's notable improvement in their defensive performances.
United are still a question mark for me and I don't think there's too much chance of them finishing in the top four this season, as I still consider them to be a poorer side than Spurs and Chelsea at the moment.
This might be a long shot but I think that the hosts win 2 - 0 (7% chance according to my model) .
Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa
This game screams a nil-nil scoreline, that's all I have to say on the matter.
How did we do in the last gameweek?
If there's something that doesn't seem to change, it's my model's error versus FiveThirtyEight. We're still just 2.7% above them in terms of matchday predictions, however, what did surprise me, is that the naive model beat both my biased and 538's model on the past gameweek.
Cool, right?
Hope you enjoyed today's issue! Let's see how we fare in this season's ninth gameweek, I'll post the model's error in next week's issue.
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Catch you later! 👋
